What's the chance of having a PAR 38 lamp being stolen from a flood light?
We are in the situation of a switched (wall switched from inside) flood light having an old CFL flood and an expensive LED flood bulb. The CFL is at EOL by randomly turning on and off, and I don't want to risk a fire.
We would replace it with a new CFL flood, but it's dark outside, and we have to do it in the day. So what's the chance of a thief grabbing the LED lamp and taking it away during the night?

Additional Question: What do you think of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it"?
I want to replace some of our headlights and light bulbs with better ones.

Another Additional Question: There is something rattling in my SD Card with all of my lighting photos, do I need to worry?

I doubt the lamp becomes way more attractive to thieves by being a LED. If thre are such thieves in your area, then i'd expect a few CFLs gone in the past too. If there weren't any, then dont worry much

And if you do, put up a couple security cameras (preferrably hidden ones, to not attract thieves in the 1st place)

Backup your data not when you suspect the storage device is failing, but always. Save for the card, computer HD contents, and so on. And if something fails it'd be only the computer part itself thats lost, not the data

Hard to imagine what might rattle so wildly inside a SD card, maybe the write protect switch slider ? But it is tiny and not loose in big space, wouid its tiny rattling even be heard ?

Additional Question: What do you think of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it"?
I want to replace some of our headlights and light bulbs with better ones.

It is more of a "What is the gain" vs "What is the cost". The gain of replacing something close the end of it's life could be no need to mess with it in a hurry when the old one fails, doing it's task better,... The cost is the remaining service life, but as well in case of really early upgrade the wear of all the attachment screws and latches and the consequent risk of breaking something by some mistake during the work or so.

The questions should be: Is it doing it's job? Is the known state so, it is expected to do it's job safely (it won't threaten anything else by it's expected failure) and reliably enough still for reasonable time (so it won't need any extra expensive service-man "mission"; that its mainly related to installation where you need to rent some special equipment, needs more time to get there and so on)?
If the answer for both is "Yes", then there is usually no reason to mess with it at all.

Thanks for the answers, I will try to backup my photos and evaluate new lighting.
The only thing I could think of for the SD card rattling is a PCB component, or the internal board.